Both Israel’s indirect operations against Iran and Iran’s actions were sometimes offensive and sometimes reactive, both sides have carried out preemptive indirect operations against the other, and have given an indirect response to the other party’s attack
The most obvious example of these measures, which is not dissimilar to the current situation, occurred in February 1992, after the assassination of the then Secretary General of Hezbollah in Lebanon, Seyyed Abbas Mousavi. The Lebanese Islamic Jihad, led by Imad Mughniyeh, carried out an operation against Mossad intelligence agents in Türkiye just a few days after Mousavi was killed. Two weeks later, the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires was bombed and 29 people, mostly local employees and visitors to the embassy, were killed
This was the recurring pattern of mutual actions between Iran and Israel in the past few decades and before the current war in Gaza
But this book has now entered a new chapter. Both sides are now directly threatening the other side with military action and their words do not remain at the level of words
After the missile and drone attack in April, Israel carried out a limited military attack on Isfahan and it is said that a part of the battery of an S-300 air defense system was targeted
The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran was Israel’s second response, which even the most pessimistic analysts of the Islamic Republic did not expect
This mutual settlement seemed to have reached a balance point before Hassan Nasrallah was killed in Beirut. But the killing of the Secretary General of the most important representative force of the Islamic Republic in the suburbs of Beirut activated the “action and reaction” chain
?What are the conflict levels
:In this new chapter of their confrontation, Iran and Israel can enter into conflict on three levels
First level: direct and controlled strike on military targets
Second level: direct attacks on infrastructure facilities
The third level: direct attacks on political leaders
At the moment, both countries have engaged each other at the first level in their new model of confrontation, which is unknown and ambiguous to both sides. Israel and Iran have hit military targets in their chain of actions and reactions
Since the evening of Tuesday, October 1 , after Iran’s second missile attack on Israel, the conversation in Israel and America are about moving to the second level of the conflict. Axios wrote in a news report on Wednesday morning that Iran’s oil facilities are on the list of Israel’s attacks on Iran in the next few days
Israeli security accounts on X social network have also published pictures of Damavand thermal power plant around Tehran. With the explanation that this is Iran’s largest power plant and it is probably going to be the target of a counter attack
A Persian-speaking public relations figure for the Israeli government also wrote after last night’s attack that he advises Iranians to leave the big cities
On the Iranian side of the story, there have been threats at this level. For example, republishing part of Hassan Nasrallah’s 2016 speech about their ability to target ammonia storage tanks in Haifa. or threatening to attack the Dimona nuclear facility or the sea water desalination infrastructure in Eilat and the port facilities of this city
Entering the second level of conflict, i.e. targeting infrastructure, is very dangerous for both sides. A limited and controlled attack on military targets has one meaning, and an attack on the infrastructure that is linked to the daily life of citizens is a completely different matter
It is not yet clear whether Israel is going to change the levels of conflict in its response to Iran’s missile attack or not. What has happened in the last few weeks has consumed all available capacities at the military level, and this is a wake-up call for the Middle East and its defenseless people
The difference between infrastructure attacks and attacks on military targets is that they can quickly facilitate the occurrence of subsequent tense events. If this happens, the protagonists in the field and the active observers shall prepare for a war. A war in which the targets are not based on the calculation of the possible reaction of the opponent, but chosen only to inflict the deepest and most severe blow possible
The occurrence of a full-scale war between two long-standing enemies could mean the opening of a new gate of hell in the Middle East, which has been an inferno on earth for ages.October 3, 2024
ایران و اسرائیل به “سطح دوم” درگیری وارد میشوند؟
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Translation provided by Notes from Iran
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