The Israeli government in its latest spate of adventurism has assassinated Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of the political wing of Hamas, in the heart of Tehran; in the context of increasing tensions with Lebanese Hezbollah, the Israeli government has once again intensified the risk of a devastating war in the region. The Israeli government had calculated and consciously chose the time and place of this assassination, and while it could have targeted him anywhere else, it chose Tehran to humiliate the security and intelligence capabilities of the regime, to flaunt its power. and diminish the aura and prestige of Islamic Republic’s (IR) power in the region
Of course, the Israeli government has already applied such policy in many arenas, from the serial assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists, to theft of several tons of files related to nuclear activities, explosions in Natanz facilities, etc. But the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, who was a guest of IR at the inauguration ceremony of the new president, is greater than all other cases. An event that can be compared to the killing of Qassem Soleimani from the point of view of IR. At that time, Khamenei blamed the Iraqi government for not protecting their guest
The Israeli government, on the one hand, thinks that IR lacks the ability to face a full-scale and long-term war with Israel and the US, and by humiliating the intelligence and security apparatus of the regime, it tries to stop IR’s regional excesses with the help of the US. restrain it and at the same time humiliate the regime in the eyes of IR’s proxies. But the reality is that if IR does not tolerate this humiliating situation, then the risk of mutual adventurism cannot be ignored.
For more than 10 months, the Israeli government has been plowing the densely populated Gaza Strip with bombs and weapons of mass destruction, and has not left a single house standing. So far, it has killed nearly 38,000 people, most of them children, and elderly men and women. Despite all this, the criminal army of Israel has not only failed to reach its stated goals, but is under pressure in the political and social arena from the public opinion in the world and even some of its allied governments, including some government circles in US. In such context, the expansion of the war at the regional level or at least the maintenance of a warlike and inflamed atmosphere, according to the extremist and criminal right-wing groups gathered in the Israeli cabinet, is considered a solution to get out of their current deadlock in the Gaza war, which they are stuck in like a swamp
In addition, a significant part of the Israeli people desire the removal of Netanyahu and a general elections. Additionally, after removing Netanyahu, he will most likely go to prison because of his court case. Therefore, the Prime Minister of Israel is using the escalation of the atmosphere of war in the region and provocation of the IR and Hezbollah in the service of his own survival in power. By evaluating these objective factors, it could be said that today the Middle East has become a powder keg. There is a possibility of its explosion and the risk of the region being dragged step by step into a devastating war has become serious.
Regardless of how much the American government wants such a war not to happen, there are many signs that Netanyahu is trying to open the door to more American military presence in the region, in order to guarantee his victory in the event of such a war. Therefore, Israel’s provocations to drag the IR into such a war, for which the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran can be one of its excuses, should be taken seriously.
IR which is now committed to taking revenge on Israel for the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, is likely to engage in adventurism in order to overcome the burden of this humiliation. Another scenario could lead into a devastating war between these two governments. Whether such a war is limited or unlimited, it will harm all the people of Iran, Israel, Lebanon, Syria and the entire region, and without a doubt, the human and material losses will be catastrophic.
The foreign policy of IR, which is formulated by Khamenei and implemented through the Quds Force of the IRGC*, is leading the Iranian society into a catastrophe no less dangerous than the disaster of the eight year long “Iran-Iraq war.” Islamic Republic has ruined the lives of Iranians by imposing extreme poverty and causing an array of social pathologies,it is a possibility that it could welcome such a war as a last resort for its survival. It is not possible to prevent such a war except by intensifying political and labor struggles and an expansion of civil and social activities, with active participation of people in the political arena.
The slogan of “No to a war that is reactionary and anti-people on both sides” should resound everywhere in Iran. It shall not be allowed that the lives of the Iranian people today and tomorrow become a victim of the adventurism between two right-wing governments of Iran and Israel.
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